Kentucky Derby

[GreenMonkeys#1]

So, if you haven't been following along in the Spam Topic on Saturdays, I have been posting prep races for the Kentucky Derby. Now, Saturday is finally going to be the day in which we find out who will win the Derby. Here is a table below.

#	Name	Jockey	Odds
1	Vicar's In Trouble	Rosie Napravnik	30
2	Harry's Holiday	Corey Lanerie	50
3	Uncle Sigh	Irad Ortiz Jr.	30
4	Danza	Joe Bravo	10
5	California Chrome	Victor Espinoza	5/2
6	Samraat	Jose Ortiz	15
7	We Miss Artie	Javier Castellano	50
8	General A Rod	Joel Rosario	15
9	Vinceremos	Joe Rocco Jr.	30
10	Wildcat Red	Luis Saez	15
11	Hoppertunity	SCRATCHED	--
12	Dance With Fate	Corey Nakatani	20
13	Chitu	Martin Garcia	20
14	Medal Count	Robby Albarado	20
15	Tapiture	Ricardo Sanchez Jr.	15
16	Intense Holiday	John Velazquez	12
17	Commanding Curve	Shaun Bridgmohan	50
18	Candy Boy	Gary Stevens	20
19	Ride On Curlin	Calvin Borel	15
20	Wicked Strong	Rajiv Maragh	8

This field is pretty interesting, so you can pick 4 that you want.

[GreenMonkeys#1]

Vicar’s In Trouble comes to Kentucky as the Louisiana Derby winner. He has hit the board in all 5 of his career starts and won 3 of them, 2 of which were graded stakes races. This horse seems to like being up front and I am a concerned with how this horse would handle a fast pace in the derby. Previous to his Louisiana Derby win, in the Risen Star Stakes he failed to grab the lead early and finished in 3rd. However it should be noted he did battle back to pull within 1 length down the stretch before running out of gas and falling back to a well beaten 3rd. The biggest problem for Vicar's In Trouble is the fact that he drew the #1 post. If you want to understand how much of a disadvantage that is look no further then 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite Lookin At Lucky's start from the 1 hole. He is going to have to break perfectly and get right to the front but if he gets a clean break and can get right to the front he will have the shortest trip around.
Harry’s Holiday is an easy toss. He has not won any graded stakes races. If the derby is his first one I would be extremely shocked. Lets be realistic, he simply does not belong here.
Unce Sigh is a New York based horse that had a nice rivalry with Samraat throughout the spring battling head to head with him in a few races at Aqueduct. He never finished ahead of Samraat so based on that its hard to like him in this spot. Based on his post position i'd ecpect him to head right up front heading into the first turn. I just don't see a scenerio that has him in contention coming down the stretch.
Danza won the Arkansas Derby at odds of 41-1 and he did it in a spectacular performance. With only 4 lifetime starts its hard to get a read on him. But his Arkansas Derby was so impressive that I am going to play this horse under California Chrome in most if not all of my exotic bets. To play devil’s advocate a lot of time when a horse improves that much in one race there is a bounce factor. But I can not ignore that performance in Arkansas. Big time win…
California Chrome is this years rags to riches story. His owners bought his Dam (Mother), Love theChase, for $8,000. They then bred Love the Chase to an unproven California based stallion called Lucky Pulpit for $2,500. The result: the millionaire and possibly the most unlikely Kentucky Derby favorite ever, California Chrome. Over the Santa Anita Derby champion's past 4 races no one has ever been close to California Chrome. He has won those races by a combined 24 ¼ lengths. The scary thing is that he hasn’t even been pushed in those races. All in all I do not believe there is a horse in this field that can beat this horse. The only thing that could beat him is a bad trip, whether its getting pinned against the rail or stuck out 6-7 wide. You're going to hear a lot of concern for a fast pace burning him out, but i'm not concerned with that in the least. This horse has tactical speed, meaning he can win a race in different styles, he can sprint then slow and take back off with push button acceleration and will have no problem sitting off the pace and exploding down the stretch. I truly believe that if this horse does complete the task and win the Derby, he will cruise through the Preakness and head to Belmont with a legit shot at a Triple Crown. Here is a little sneaky fact you won't hear anywhere else, looking down his pedigree you will find a horse named Ribot who is considered by many to be one of the greatest horses of all time. Ribot was considered the ultimate ‘Super Horse’. Undefeated in sixteen races, he won over all distances, from 5 furlongs to 1 ¾ miles in three different countries and on all types of track conditions. Flat out - California Chrome is special.
 
Samraat was undefeated in his first 5 starts until his 2nd place finish in the Wood Memorial. Another horse who likes to run in front running fashion should contribute to a fast moving pace. When you run 6 career starts and finish in first in 5 of them and 2nd in the other its hard to say that this horse is not a contender. However horses coming out of NY haven't fared too well in recent history. Not one of my favorites but at the same time you can't totally ignore him.
 
We Miss Artie has not raced since he won the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes over an artificial surface on March 14th. Look, these 20 horses who enter the gate on the first Saturday in May are all premium talent. Every year 30,000 thoroughbred horses are born, 15,000 actually make it to race, only 20 make the gate on Derby day, 1 wins and is considered the greatest of his generation. This is not that horse.
 
General A Rod ran some good quality races in Florida. He finished in the money in all 5 of his career races and finished 3rd in the Florida Derby. Not a bad horse by any means but I think he might be in a little over his head here. Post position 8 is considered a premium spot to be in so if he hit the top 4 I wouldn't be that surprised but you can't bet every horse and have to make some tough tosses.
Vinceremos is a Todd Pletcher horse and enters the field coming off of a last place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. That clearly wasn't his day. Maybe he didn't like the synthetic track. Good thing for him is that the Derby is run on dirt. All of his other 4 races were on dirt finishing with 2 wins and 2 second place finishes. He has not really beaten any quality horses and is kind of a tough horse to get a read on. This is the type of horse that could finish dead last or could surprise everyone at huge odds and finish 3rd or 4th and lead to a lot of torn up tickets and huge payouts. Based on entering the Derby off of a last place finish you have to toss this horse.
Wildcat Red is a fighter. Another front running horse, but a front running horse that will fight to the end. He comes to Kentucky off of a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby. This horse will not quit. In his race previous to the Florida Derby he battled General A Rod nose for nose all the way around the track and prevailed in the end. He has won 5 of his career 7 starts and his 2 losses were less than a ½ length combined at the wire. His pedigree says he can't stay the distance as these horses stretch out to 1 ¼  miles but pedigree can not measure heart and this horse might have the biggest. What he has to do is a tall task considering his pedigree, front running style, and what should be a blazing pace but if any horse in this race is going to be able to withstand the pace its Wildcat Red. I think he has a chance to be right there coming down the stretch. I will play him heavy under California Chrome in exotics.
Hoppertunity - SCRATCHED
Dance With Fate enters the Derby coming off a win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. He has won 3 of 8 lifetime starts. Few things I don’t like about this horse. 1) 6 of his 8 races and all 3 of his wins come over an artificial surface and one turf race. 2) The competition this horse has beaten in his wins has been less than stellar. 3) The last time this horse raced on a dirt track was November 13th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and was a non factor finishing 8th. Although I may consider playing this horse on the back end of a few tri and super bets based solely on the fact that the Blue Grass is one of the big 6 prep races and a win that can’t be totally ignored.
Chitu is an interesting horse. He has only made 4 starts and had won 3 of them with one second place finish. He has not raced since March 14th, winning the Sunland Derby. I think the odds will be high on him, maybe somewhere in the area of 20-1. Maybe worth a flier. Its hard to get a read since he wasn't in any of the big 6 prep races. He is trained by Bob Baffert and again he has won 75% of his races the one he lost, he lost only by a 1/2 length.
Medal Count is another horse that is unproven on dirt. He comes to the Derby off a 2nd place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes on synthetic. In 7 career races he has only raced twice on dirt finishing 5th and 11th. However he is steadily improving and in his last race in the Blue Grass Stakes he finished 2nd off only 8 days of rest. Word out of Churchill is he has actually taken quite nicely to the track. Deep longshot play.
Tapiture is a horse that for whatever reason im very indifferent about. I thought he was overrated going off at 2-1 in the Arkansas Derby and my gut turned out to be right. He finished a well beaten 4th 7 lengths behind the leader. In all fairness he was stuck out with a 4-5 wide trip. However in his previous 2 races before the Arkansas Derby he did finish ahead of Ride On Curlin who I kinda like. Originally I was going to toss this horse but the more I think about it Im going to thro him in on my tri.
Intense Holiday was not one of my favorites. But the buzz out of Louisville is that this horse has worked great over the surface and is primed to run a big race. He finished 2nd to Vicar’s In Trouble in the Louisiana Derby and actually beat Vicar’s In Trouble 1 month before in the Risen Star. He has won 2 of his 8 lifetime starts and he is battle tested considering his last 6 races are all graded stakes races. Based on the buzz he is creating alone i'm going to have to find a way to play him in exotic bets.
Commanding Curve comes to Louisville off of a 3rd place finish in the Louisiana Derby. He has finished behind Vicar’s in Trouble and Intense Holiday in both of his last 2 races. I don't believe he can be a factor. Toss
Candy Boy comes out of a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. He has 2 wins in 7 career starts. I do think he is the type of horse that can get the distance. I just don't know if he is fast enough. A month ago he was considered a much better prospect. He looked like a 2nd tier horse (or 3rd tier if tier 1 is California Chrome by himself) in the Santa Anita Derby. However would not be shocked if he was passing tired horses in the stretch to come up and hit 3rd or 4th… but I think thats his best case scenario.
Ride On Curlin is the son of North America’s richest race horse and 2007 Kentucky Derby runner up Curlin. He has 9 career races and has not won a race over 6 furlongs but has finished top 3 in 8 of the 9. The other being a 4th place finish back in September. In his last race he finished 2nd to Danza in the Arkansas Derby. This horse for whatever reason has a tendency to get stuck wide around turns thus although he isn't winning these races he is covering a lot of ground. If he could get a good trip for once and can save some ground he may be able to conserve some energy for a stretch run. Word out of Churchill is he is full of energy right now. I would be shocked if he won the race but i will use him on the back of a few trifecta and superfecta bets.
Wicked Strong is a horse that kinda came out of nowhere to win the Wood Memorial. He closed strong on a solid field, and really looked liked a good improving horse who beat a few well respected horses. I don’t see the distance being a problem and I expect him to come closing on the field hard down the stretch. I do see a good chance of him hitting the board. Not a big fan of him drawing post 20 but no where near as bad as drawing the 1 spot. He will be one of the horses I key under California Chrome in exotic bets. I expect an 'Ice Box' type closer. (2nd place finisher in the 2010 Derby)
21. Pablo Del Monte--SCRATCHED
- See more at: http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1582#sthash.TYWxlnBn.dpuf

[GreenMonkeys#1]

CALIFORNIA CHROME HAS WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY!!!!!

5-California Chrome
17-Commanding Curve
4-Danza
20-Wicked Strong

Thanks for following along.

[The Silver Monkey]

Meanwhile, Iowa Internet Explorer finished last.

And has anyone checked General A-Rod for PEDs?

[GreenMonkeys#1]

Final order in the Kentucky Derby

1. 5-California Chrome
2. 17-Commanding Curve
3. 4-Danza
4. 20-Wicked Strong
5. 6-Samraat
6. 12-Dance With Fate
7. 19-Ride On Curlin
8. 14-Medal Count
9. 13-Chitu
10. 7-We Miss Artie
11. 8-General A Rod
12. 16-Intense Holiday
13. 18-Candy Boy
14. 3-Uncle Sigh
15. 15-Tapiture
16. 2-Harry's Holiday
17. 9-Vinceremos
18. 10-Wildcat Red
19. 1-Vicar's In Trouble
DNS: 11-Hoppertunity

Don't really get the Iowa Internet Explorer reference, but love the A Rod one.  

[The Silver Monkey]

Chrome and Internet Explorer are both internet browsers.  As for the Iowa part, that's only so the state and browser each start with the same letter.

[GreenMonkeys#1]

You said it finished last. That's why Vicar's In Trouble and Iowa Internet Explorer didn't make sense. CA Chrome totally makes sense for the reference,